Aulia, Nadia Restu (2025) ANALISIS KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN DALAM LOCAL CURRENCY SETTLEMENT : STUDI KASUS INDONESIA DAN NEGARA MITRA. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
This study analyzes the influence of monetary policy and macroeconomic variables on the trade balance in the Local Currency Settlement (LCS) scheme between Indonesia and its main partners: Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, and China. LCS is expected to improve transaction efficiency, reduce dependence on the US dollar, and strengthen national economic resilience in the midst of globalization. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach, this study provides the influence of shocks and contributing variables such as exchange rate volatility, interest rates, money supply, economic growth (GDP), inflation, and foreign exchange reserves on the bilateral trade balance. The results of the impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition show that the impact of each variable differs between countries, reflecting the economic structure and domestic policies of each. These findings support the relevance of the Exchange Rate Pass Through, Interest Rate Parity, and Precautionary Demand theories. Overall, the implementation of LCS has made a positive contribution to the stability of the bilateral trade balance and supports a more responsive monetary policy. This study provides an important empirical basis for policy makers and business actors to develop more adaptive and sustainable international trade strategies based on the use of local currencies.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan moneter dan variabel makroekonomi terhadap neraca perdagangan dalam kebijakan Local Currency Settlement (LCS) antara Indonesia dan mitra utamanya, yaitu Malaysia, Thailand, Jepang, dan China. LCS diharapkan dapat meningkatkan efisiensi transaksi, mengurangi ketergantungan pada dolar AS, serta memperkuat ketahanan ekonomi nasional di tengah ketidakpastian global. Dengan menggunakanpendekatan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), penelitian ini mengevaluasi pengaruh shock dan kontribusi variabel seperti volatilitas nilai tukar, suku bunga, jumlah uang beredar, pertumbuhan ekonomi (PDB), inflasi, dan cadangan devisa terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral. Hasil impulse response function (IRF) dan variance decomposition menunjukkan bahwa dampak tiap variabel berbeda antar negara, mencerminkan struktur ekonomi dan kebijakan domestik masing-masing. Penelitian ini mendukung relevansi teori Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Interest Rate Parity, dan Precautionary Demand. Secara keseluruhan, penerapan LCS memberikan kontribusi positif terhadap stabilitas neraca perdagangan bilateral serta mendukung perumusan kebijakan moneter yang lebih responsif. Penelitian ini memberikan dasar empiris yang penting bagi pembuat kebijakan dan pelaku usaha untuk menyusun strategi perdagangan internasional yang lebih adaptif dan berkelanjutan berbasis penggunaan mata uang lokal. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Local Currency Settlement (LCS), Monetary Policy, Bilateral Transactions, VECM. Local Currency Settlement (LCS), Kebijakan Moneter, Transaksi Bilateral, VECM. | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor |
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| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | NADIA RESTU AULIA | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 04 Sep 2025 05:05 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 04 Sep 2025 05:05 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/53513 |
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