RAHMADHANI, MUNTIARA PUTRI (2025) ANALISIS DETERMINAN CADANGAN DEVISA DI KAWASAN ACFTA: STUDI EMPIRIS PERIODE 2005-2023. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
Foreign exchange reserves are a vital indicator that reflects a country's economic resilience, particularly in facing external pressures. These reserves can be influenced by various economic factors, including monetary policy, trade policy, and external sector activities. This study aims to analyze the effects of Central Bank Policy Rates, Exchange Rates, Inflation, Manufactured Exports, Manufactured Imports, Foreign Direct Investment, and Tariff Policy on Foreign Exchange Reserves in both the long term and short term within the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) from 2005 to 2023. The study employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method using panel data from several ACFTA member countries. The results indicate that in the long term, Central Bank Policy Rates, Exchange Rates, Manufactured Exports, Foreign Direct Investment, and Tariff Policy have a positive and significant impact on Foreign Exchange Reserves, while Inflation and Manufactured Imports have a negative and significant effect. In the short term, Central Bank Policy Rates and Tariff Policy have a negative and significant influence on Foreign Exchange Reserves at certain lags. Inflation shows a positive and significant effect at certain lags. Meanwhile, other variables such as Exchange Rates, Manufactured Exports, Manufactured Imports, and Foreign Direct Investment do not exhibit a significant impact on Foreign Exchange Reserves in the short term.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Cadangan devisa merupakan indikator penting yang mencerminkan ketahanan ekonomi suatu negara, terutama dalam menghadapi tekanan eksternal. Cadangan devisa dapat dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor ekonomi, termasuk kebijakan moneter, kebijakan perdagangan, dan aktivitas sektor eksternal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel Suku Bunga Bank Sentral, Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Ekspor Manufaktur, Impor Manufaktur, Foreign Direct Investment, dan Kebijakan Tarif terhadap Cadangan Devisa dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek di kawasan ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) selama periode 2005 hingga 2023. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Pooled Mean Group (PMG) dengan data panel dari beberapa negara anggota ACFTA. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang, variabel Suku Bunga Bank Sentral, Nilai Tukar, Ekspor Manufaktur, Foreign Direct Investment, dan Kebijakan Tarif berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap Cadangan Devisa, sementara Inflasi dan Impor Manufaktur memberikan pengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Dalam jangka pendek, Suku Bunga Bank Sentral dan Kebijakan Tarif memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap Cadangan Devisa pada lag tertentu. Inflasi menunjukkan pengaruh positif dan signifikan pada lag tertentu. Sementara variabel lainnya seperti Nilai Tukar, Ekspor Manufaktur, Impor Manufaktur, dan Foreign Direct Investment tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan terhadap Cadangan Devisa dalam jangka pendek. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Foreign Exchange Reserves, Monetary Policy, Manufactured Exports, Foreign Direct Investment, Pooled Mean Group Cadangan Devisa, Kebijakan Moneter, Ekspor Manufaktur, Foreign Direct Investment, Pooled Mean Group | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
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| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Muntiara Putri Rahmadhani | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 07 Aug 2025 02:08 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 07 Aug 2025 02:08 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/51218 |
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