SAUDARA RISMANTUA SIHITE, SAVANT (2024) ANALISIS DETERMINAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA DENGAN MODEL AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL). S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYSA.
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the influence of Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Money Supply (M2), Consumer Price Index, World Oil Prices on Inflation in Indonesia in the long and short term using monthly data from January 2020 to December 2023. The research method used in this study is to use Autoregressive Distrubuted Lag (ARDL). The results of this study indicate that in the long term the exchange rate variable, consumer price index, and world oil prices have a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia, the interest rate variable and the money supply do not show a significant effect on Inflation in Indonesia in the long term. In the shor-term test, the variables of exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, and world oil prices have no significant effect on inflation in the short-term while the consumer price index variable has a significant positive effect on inflation in Indonesia for the period January 2018-December 2023.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, Jumlah Uang Beredar (M2), Indeks Harga Konsumen, Harga Minyak Dunia terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang dan pendek dengan menggunakan data bulanan dari Januari 2020 sampai Desember 2023. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yakni dengan menggunakan Autoregressive Distrubuted Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang variabel nilai tukar, indeks harga konsumen, dan harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi di Indonesia, variabel suku bunga dan jumlah uang beredar tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang. Pada uji jangka pendek variabel nilai tukar, suku bunga, jumlah uang beredar, dan harga minyak dunia tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi dalam jangka pendek sedangkan variabel indeks harga konsumen berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia periode Januari 2018-Desember 2023 | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Money Supply (M2), Consumer Price Index, World Oil Prices, ARDL Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar, Jumlah Uang Beredar (M2), Indeks Harga Konsumen, Harga Minyak Dunia, ARDL | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
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| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Savant Saudara Rismantua Sihite | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 10 Mar 2025 03:32 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 10 Mar 2025 03:32 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/46069 |
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