Rizieq Zamzani, Muhamad (2024) ANALISIS EFEKTIVITAS KEBIJAKAN MONETER PADA KONDISI INDEKS KETIDAKPASTIAN DI INDONESIA. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
The topic of monetary policy effectiveness is crucial for continuous research to ensure that monetary policy remains capable of achieving its targets, even as economic conditions become increasingly dynamic. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy during periods of economic uncertainty in Indonesia using the Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model. Data from the period 1990-2023 encompasses variables such as interest rates, exchange rates, and credit as proxy of monetary policy, in addition to the consumer price index and uncertainty index. The analysis results indicate that monetary policy has a more stable and consistent impact under low uncertainty conditions, while under high uncertainty conditions, its effectiveness drastically decreases, with responses becoming more volatile and unstable towards economic growth. These findings highlight the importance for Bank Indonesia and policymakers to consider more adaptive and responsive strategies in the face of economic uncertainty. By implementing transparent and well-coordinated monetary policies alongside other economic policies, it is hoped that the effectiveness of these policies can be enhanced, thereby supporting stable and sustainable economic growth. This study also recommends further research to develop more comprehensive approaches in evaluating monetary policy under various conditions of uncertainty.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Topik mengenai efektivitas kebijakan moneter sangat penting untuk terus diteliti supaya kebijakan moneter tetap mampu mencapai targetnya walaupun kondisi perekonomian semakin dinamis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efektivitas kebijakan moneter selama periode ketidakpastian ekonomi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan model Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR). Data dari periode tahun 1990-2023 mencakup variabel-variabel seperti suku bunga, nilai tukar, kredit sebagai cerminan kebijakan moneter. Selain itu indeks harga konsumen, dan indeks ketidakpastian. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter memiliki dampak yang lebih stabil dan konsisten pada kondisi ketidakpastian rendah, sementara pada kondisi ketidakpastian tinggi, efektivitasnya menurun drastis dengan respons yang fluktuatif dan tidak stabil terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Temuan ini menekankan pentingnya bagi Bank Indonesia dan pembuat kebijakan untuk mempertimbangkan strategi yang lebih adaptif dan responsif terhadap kondisi ketidakpastian ekonomi. Dengan kebijakan moneter yang transparan dan terkoordinasi dengan kebijakan ekonomi lainnya, diharapkan efektivitas kebijakan dapat ditingkatkan dan mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang stabil dan berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini juga merekomendasikan penelitian lebih lanjut untuk mengembangkan pendekatan yang lebih komprehensif dalam mengevaluasi kebijakan moneter di berbagai kondisi ketidakpastian. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Credit, Uncertainty, Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR). Efektivitas Kebijakan Moneter, Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar, Kredit, Ketidakpastian, Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR). | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
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| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | M Rizieq Zamzani | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 29 Jul 2024 11:11 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 29 Jul 2024 11:11 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/38373 |
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