PERAWATI, PERAWATI (2015) ANALISIS PERAMALAN KEBUTUHAN KEDELAI PADA KOPERASI “BERKAH AMANAH SEJAHTERA” KOTA TANGERANG. S1 thesis, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa.

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Abstract

ABSTRACT Planning and observation is required as one of supporting corporate operational activity. Firm arranges planning at all area, one of it is sell area. Therefore indispensable sales forecasting in big determine its total stockpiling. This research is done on Cooperation Berkah Amanah Sejahtera. There is execution time even data collecting is performed on month of September until december 2014. In determine moke requirement forecasting on year 2015 until 2017. There are several method that is utilized for example simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing ( α =0. 7, α =0. 8, α =0. 9 ) and trend projection. From analisis and count already being done therefore gets to be known that moke sales forecasting method in point is utilized which is utilizes exponential smoothing method with α=0,7. Since has inferior fault zoom which is mean square error 15.918 kg, mean absolute deviation 446.010.506 kg and mean absolute percent error 12,7%. So that exponential smoothing with αlpha 0,7 more correct being utilized on Cooperation Berkah Amanah Sejahtera in predict moke requirement at upcoming term, but in such event exponential smoothing method just gets to be utilized deep short duration for that simple moving average, weighted moving average, and trend projection can help deep predicts total requisition on a long term. Key word: moving average, exponential smoothing, trend projection.

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