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ANALISIS HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI DI NEGARA BERKEMBANG PENGIMPOR MINYAK
Price stability in developing countries faces challenges due to domestic price sensitivity arising from dependence on crude oil imports and exchange rates movements that transmit import prices into domestic prices in low and high regimes. This study aims to analyze the effects of world oil prices and exchange rates on inflation, along with other control variables, namely real interest rates, money supply, economic growth, and trade openness. The sample used consists of 19 oil-importing developing countries over the period 2000:Q1–2023:Q4 using the Fixed Effect Panel Threshold (FEPT) method. Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) is also applied to find evidence of a smooth and gradual regime transition. The results show that the PSTR model is not suitable for the model specification, but there is evidence of a nonlinear relationship. The FEPT results show that the exchange rate threshold is 4.8875%, with stable exchange rates in the low regime and higher exchange rates (currency depreciation) in the high regime. World oil prices have a positive effect on inflation when the exchange rate in the low regime, while this variable has no significant effect during the high regime. Economic growth has no significant effect during the low regime, while it has a significant negative effect during the high regime. The exchange rate, real interest rate, money supply, and trade openness variables have a significant negative effect in both the low and high regimes. Monetary authorities may implement FX intervention policies during periods of high depreciation and adopt forward-looking policies during periods of global oil price shocks. A combination of fiscal-energy policies aimed at developing renewable alternative energy resources can reduce dependence on crude oil imports.
ILMU EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA
ANALISIS HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI DI NEGARA BERKEMBANG PENGIMPOR MINYAK (Text)
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HB Economic Theory