eprintid: 45300 rev_number: 23 eprint_status: archive userid: 19213 dir: disk0/00/04/53/00 datestamp: 2025-02-01 11:42:31 lastmod: 2025-02-01 11:42:31 status_changed: 2025-02-01 11:42:31 type: thesis metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Widyani Shopa, Tri creators_id: 5553180021 contributors_type: http://www.loc.gov/loc.terms/relators/THS contributors_type: http://www.loc.gov/loc.terms/relators/THS contributors_name: Arifin, Samsul contributors_name: S Chendrawan, Tony contributors_id: 197811192009121002 contributors_id: 197308302024211001 corp_creators: UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA corp_creators: FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS corp_creators: ILMU EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN title: PENDEKATAN VECM DALAM MENGANALISIS PENGARUH ANTARA FDI, INFLASI, KURS, PDB DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA ispublished: pub subjects: L1 divisions: FEB divisions: IEP full_text_status: restricted keywords: Trade Balance, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product dan Interest Rate Neraca Perdagangan, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflasi, Kurs, PDB, Suku Bunga. note: Neraca perdagangan adalah salah satu indikator penting yang mencerminkan keseimbangan antara ekspor dan impor suatu negara. Neraca perdagangan yang sehat merupakan salah satu faktor kunci dalam mendukung ketahanan eksternal perekonomian Indonesia berkelanjutan. Dibalik defisit dan surplusnya neraca perdagangan terdapat beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhinya, oleh karena itu peneliti mengkaji variabel Foreign Direct Investment, Inflasi, Kurs, Produk Domestik Bruto dan Suku Bunga terhadap neraca perdagangan di Indonesia periode Q1 tahun 2007 sampai Q4 tahun 2023. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dan menggunakan aplikasi eviews 13 sebagai pengolah data. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat kointegrasi dari variabel inflasi, kurs, dan PDB terhadap neraca perdagangan. Adapun efek guncangan shock yang diberikan oleh FDI, Inflasi, PDB dn Suku Bunga terhadap neraca perdagangan mulai bergerak stabil namun bernilai negatif mulai dari periode ke-20 hingga ke-68, sedangkan variabel Kurs bergerak stabil dengan nilai yang positif. Serta kemampuan kontribusi terbesar terhadap neraca perdagangan dari FDI dan Inflasi adalah 1,14%; Kurs 5,54%; PDB 4,01%; dan Suku Bunga 1,79%. Implikasi lanjut dalam penelitian ini adalah bagaimana peran pemerintah mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengatasi defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia, antara lain dengan menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar melalui intervensi pasar yang lebih aktif, pengendalian inflasi yang baik melalui peningkatan kualitas infrastrktur dan efisiensi logistik, dan menarik FDI yang berorientasi ekspor serta membangun ekosistem startup guna mempertahankan neraca perdagangan dalam kondisi surplus sehingga dapat mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional yang berkelanjutan. abstract: The trade balance is one of the important indicators that reflects the balance between a country's exports and imports. A healthy trade balance is one of the key factors in supporting the external resilience of the sustainable Indonesian economy. Behind the deficit and surplus of the trade balance, there are several factors that influence it, therefore the researcher studied the variables of Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product and Interest Rates on the trade balance in Indonesia for the period Q1 2007 to Q4 2023. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method and uses the eviews 13 application as a data processor. The results of this study indicate that there is cointegration of the variables of inflation, exchange rates, and GDP on the trade balance. The effects of shocks given by FDI, Inflation, GDP and Interest Rates on the trade balance began to move stably but had negative values from the 20th to the 68th period, while the Exchange Rate variable moved stably with a positive value. And the ability to contribute the most to the trade balance from FDI and Inflation is 1.14%; Exchange Rate 5.54%; GDP 4.01%; and Interest Rate 1.79%. Further implications in this study are how the government's role in issuing appropriate policies to overcome Indonesia's trade balance deficit, including by maintaining exchange rate stability through more active market intervention, good inflation control through improving infrastructure quality and logistics efficiency, and attracting export-oriented FDI and building a startup ecosystem to maintain the trade balance in a surplus condition so that it can support sustainable national economic growth. date: 2024 date_type: published pages: 146 institution: UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA department: Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan thesis_type: sarjana thesis_name: sarjana official_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/45300 related_url_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/45300 related_url_type: pub citation: Widyani Shopa, Tri (2024) PENDEKATAN VECM DALAM MENGANALISIS PENGARUH ANTARA FDI, INFLASI, KURS, PDB DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA. document_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/45300/1/Tri%20Widyani%20S_5553180021_Fulltext.pdf document_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/45300/3/Tri%20Widyani%20S_5553180021_02.pdf document_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/45300/4/Tri%20Widyani%20S_5553180021_03.pdf document_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/45300/5/Tri%20Widyani%20S_5553180021_04.pdf document_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/45300/6/Tri%20Widyani%20S_5553180021_05.pdf document_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/45300/7/Tri%20Widyani%20S_5553180021_Ref.pdf document_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/45300/8/Tri%20Widyani%20S_5553180021_Lamp.pdf document_url: https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/45300/9/Tri%20Widyani%20S_5553180021_01.pdf