AZZAHRA, DEVIRA DIEDA GENESIA (2026) ANALISIS HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI DI NEGARA BERKEMBANG PENGIMPOR MINYAK. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
Price stability in developing countries faces challenges due to domestic price sensitivity arising from dependence on crude oil imports and exchange rates movements that transmit import prices into domestic prices in low and high regimes. This study aims to analyze the effects of world oil prices and exchange rates on inflation, along with other control variables, namely real interest rates, money supply, economic growth, and trade openness. The sample used consists of 19 oil-importing developing countries over the period 2000:Q1–2023:Q4 using the Fixed Effect Panel Threshold (FEPT) method. Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) is also applied to find evidence of a smooth and gradual regime transition. The results show that the PSTR model is not suitable for the model specification, but there is evidence of a nonlinear relationship. The FEPT results show that the exchange rate threshold is 4.8875%, with stable exchange rates in the low regime and higher exchange rates (currency depreciation) in the high regime. World oil prices have a positive effect on inflation when the exchange rate in the low regime, while this variable has no significant effect during the high regime. Economic growth has no significant effect during the low regime, while it has a significant negative effect during the high regime. The exchange rate, real interest rate, money supply, and trade openness variables have a significant negative effect in both the low and high regimes. Monetary authorities may implement FX intervention policies during periods of high depreciation and adopt forward-looking policies during periods of global oil price shocks. A combination of fiscal-energy policies aimed at developing renewable alternative energy resources can reduce dependence on crude oil imports.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Stabilitas harga di negara berkembang menghadapi tantangan berupa sensitivitas harga domestik terhadap ketergantungan impor minyak mentah dan nilai tukar mentransmisikan harga impor kepada harga domestik pada low regime dan high regime. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh dari harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar terhadap variabel inflasi, serta variabel kontrol lainnya, yaitu suku bunga riil, jumlah uang beredar, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan keterbukaan perdagangan. Sampel yang digunakan adalah 19 negara berkembang pengimpor minyak selama periode 2000:Q1–2023:Q4 menggunakan metode Fixed Effect Panel Threshold (FEPT). Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) juga digunakan untuk mencari bukti transisi halus dan bertahap pada perubahan rezim, hasil menunjukkan bahwa PSTR tidak cocok digunakan sebagai model spesifikasi, akan tetapi terdapat bukti hubungan nonlinier. Hasil FEPT menunjukkan bahwa threshold nilai tukar sebesar 4,8875%, kondisi nilai tukar stabil pada saat low regime dan tinggi (depresiasi mata uang) pada saat high regime. Harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif terhadap inflasi pada saat nilai tukar berada dalam low regime, sementara itu variabel tersebut tidak berpengaruh signifikan pada saat high regime. Pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah yang positif pada low regime, sementara itu pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan pada high regime. Variabel nilai tukar, suku bunga riil, jumlah uang beredar, dan keterbukaan perdagangan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan pada low regime dan high regime. Otoritas moneter dapat menerapkan kebijakan FX intervenstions saat terjadi depresiasi tinggi dan forward-looking saat terjadi guncangan harga minyak dunia. Gabungan kebijakan fiskal-energi dalam menciptakan energi alternatif terbarukan dapat mereduksi ketergantungan pada impor minyak mentah. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Inflation, World Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, Economic Openness, FEPT Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar, FEPT, PSTR | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | |||||||||
| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Devira Dieda Genesia Azzahra | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 24 Feb 2026 01:35 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 24 Feb 2026 01:35 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/58590 |
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