SAFITRI, ISNAR DIAH (2025) PENGARUH BAURAN KEBIJAKAN MAKRO TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE TAHUN 2011-2024. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
This research aims to analyze the simultaneous and partial impact of the Macroeconomic Policy Mix—consisting of Government Expenditure Growth (PP), Money Supply Growth (JUB), and the Policy Rate (SB) on Inflation (INF) in Indonesia during the 2011–2024 period. The study employs the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression analysis method using annual time series data. The Ftest results indicate that PP, JUB, and SB simultaneously have a significant impact on Inflation suggesting that Inflation is a collective outcome influenced by policy interactions. Partially, only the Policy Rate (SB) has a significant impact on Inflation. However, SB exhibits a positive and significant coefficient, which contradicts the monetary transmission theory. This positive relationship implies the existence of Reverse Causality, where SB acts as a reactive variable raised by the Central Bank in response to high Inflation that has already occurred, rather than as a proactive instrument for price suppression within the same period. Meanwhile, PP and JUB were found to be statistically insignificant, suggesting that the inflationary impulse from the fiscal side and direct liquidity has not been empirically proven strong during the observation period.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh simultan dan parsial Bauran Kebijakan Makro—yang terdiri dari Pengeluaran Pemerintah (PP), Jumlah Uang Beredar (JUB), dan Suku Bunga (SB) terhadap Inflasi (INF) di Indonesia selama periode 2011 hingga 2024. Penelitian menggunakan metode analisis regresi Ordinary Least Square (OLS) dengan data deret waktu tahunan. Hasil uji F menunjukkan bahwa PP, JUB, dan SB secara simultan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Inflasi mengindikasikan bahwa Inflasi merupakan fenomena yang dipengaruhi oleh interaksi kebijakan secara kolektif. Secara parsial, hanya Suku Bunga Acuan (SB) yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Inflasi. Namun, SB menunjukkan koefisien positif dan signifikan yang bertentangan dengan teori transmisi moneter. Hubungan positif ini mengimplikasikan adanya Keterbalikan Kausalitas (Reverse Causality), di mana SB berfungsi sebagai variabel reaktif yang dinaikkan oleh Bank Indonesia sebagai respons terhadap Inflasi yang sudah terjadi, bukan sebagai instrumen proaktif yang berhasil menekan harga dalam periode yang sama. Sementara itu, PP dan JUB ditemukan tidak signifikan secara statistik, menunjukkan bahwa dorongan Inflasi dari sisi fiskal dan likuiditas langsung belum terbukti kuat dalam periode observasi. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Macroeconomic Policy Mix, Inflation, Government Expenditure Growth, Money Supply, Policy Rate, OLS Regression. Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga dan Inflasi | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | |||||||||
| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Isnar Diah Safitri | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 27 Nov 2025 08:50 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 27 Nov 2025 08:50 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/56306 |
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