FARHAN, MUHAMMAD (2025) ANALISIS PENGARUH STABILITAS POLITIK DAN VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP KETIDAKPASTIAN GLOBAL. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
![[img]](https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
5553210083_Muhammad Farhan_FullText.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (2MB) |
|
Text
5553210083_Muhammad Farhan_02.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (624kB) |
|
Text
5553210083_Muhammad Farhan_03.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (342kB) |
|
Text
5553210083_Muhammad Farhan_04.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (464kB) |
|
Text
5553210083_Muhammad Farhan_05.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (180kB) |
|
Text
5553210083_Muhammad Farhan_Ref.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (204kB) |
|
Text
5553210083_Muhammad Farhan_Lamp.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (880kB) |
|
Text
5553210083_Muhammad Farhan_01.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (715kB) |
Abstract
This study aims to examine the effect of political stability and macroeconomic variables, namely exchange rate (ER), economic growth (PE), inflation (INF), foreign direct investment (FDI), and interest rates (IR) on the level of global uncertainty as measured by the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) in a group of developing countries. Annual panel data for the period 2008–2023 is processed using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to overcome endogeneity problems and strengthen the validity of the estimates. The estimation results show that the political stability variable has a negative and significant effect on the WUI, indicating that improving political quality reduces global uncertainty in developing countries. Furthermore, an increase in the exchange rate (ER) also has a negative and significant impact on the WUI, meaning that domestic currency appreciation reduces uncertainty. Conversely, economic growth (PE) and inflation (INF) have a significant positive effect, indicating that the acceleration of economic expansion and price pressures drive an increase in global uncertainty. In addition, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and interest rates (IR) both show a significant negative effect on the WUI, underlining the role of international capital flows and tight monetary policy in suppressing the level of uncertainty. These findings enrich the literature on the determinants of global uncertainty and provide policy input: governments in emerging market countries need to maintain political stability, encourage a foreign investment climate, and balance monetary and fiscal policies to mitigate the impact of global economic fluctuations.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contributors: |
|
|||||||||
| Additional Information: | Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji pengaruh stabilitas politik dan variabel-variabel makroekonomi yaitu nilai tukar (ER), pertumbuhan ekonomi (PE), inflasi (INF), investasi asing langsung (FDI), dan suku bunga (IR) terhadap tingkat ketidakpastian global yang diukur menggunakan World Uncertainty Index (WUI) pada kelompok negara berkembang. Data panel tahunan periode 2008–2023 diolah dengan pendekatan Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) untuk mengatasi masalah endogenitas dan memperkuat validitas estimasi. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel stabilitas politik (Political Stability) memiliki efek negatif dan signifikan terhadap WUI, mengindikasikan bahwa peningkatan kualitas politik menurunkan ketidakpastian global di negara berkembang. Selanjutnya, kenaikan nilai tukar (ER) juga berdampak negatif dan signifikan pada WUI, yang berarti apresiasi mata uang domestik mereduksi ketidakpastian. Sebaliknya, pertumbuhan ekonomi (PE) dan inflasi (INF) berpengaruh positif signifikan, menandakan bahwa percepatan ekspansi ekonomi dan tekanan harga mendorong kenaikan ketidakpastian global. Selain itu, aliran investasi asing langsung (FDI) dan suku bunga (IR) sama-sama menunjukkan pengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap WUI, yang menggarisbawahi peran aliran modal internasional dan kebijakan moneter ketat dalam menekan tingkat ketidakpastian. Temuan ini memperkaya literatur mengenai determinan ketidakpastian global dan memberikan masukan kebijakan: pemerintah di negara pasar berkembang perlu menjaga stabilitas politik, mendorong iklim investasi asing, dan menyeimbangkan kebijakan moneter serta fiskal untuk memitigasi dampak fluktuasi ekonomi global. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | World Uncertainty Index, Political Stabiltiy, Macroecoonomic, GMM. Ketidakpastian Global, Stabilitas Politik, Makroekonomi, GMM | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
|||||||||
| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
|||||||||
| Depositing User: | Farhan Muhammad | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 17 Oct 2025 06:24 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 17 Oct 2025 06:24 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/55362 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |