PENGARUH KETIDAKPASTIAN KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI GLOBAL DAN MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP IHSG

Septiadi, Rizqi (2025) PENGARUH KETIDAKPASTIAN KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI GLOBAL DAN MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP IHSG. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, World Oil Prices, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inflation on the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) in Indonesia during the period January 2000 to December 2024. The analysis was conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach. The short-term estimation results show that Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate have a negative and significant effect on JCI, while World Oil Price has a positive and significant effect. Interest Rate does not show a significant effect on JCI. In the long term, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Exchange Rate, and Inflation have a negative and significant effect on JCI, while World Oil Price continues to show a positive and significant effect. Interest Rate has no significant effect on JCI in the long run.

Item Type:

Thesis (S1)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIP/NIM
Thesis advisor	Herlina, Deswita	197012162003122001
Thesis advisor	Zahara, Vadilla Mutia	199106272019032023

Additional Information:

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Harga Minyak Dunia, Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia, Nilai Tukar, dan Inflasi terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Indonesia selama periode Januari 2000 hingga Desember 2024. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil estimasi jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa Global Economic Policy Uncertainty dan Nilai Tukar berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap IHSG, sementara Harga Minyak Dunia memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan. Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap IHSG. Dalam jangka panjang, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Nilai Tukar, dan Inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap IHSG, sedangkan Harga Minyak Dunia tetap menunjukkan pengaruh positif dan signifikan. Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap IHSG dalam jangka panjang.

Uncontrolled Keywords:

JCI, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Variables, ARDL IHSG, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Variabel Makroekonomi, ARDL

Subjects:

H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions

Divisions:

05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan

Depositing User:

Rizqi Septiadi

Date Deposited:

09 Sep 2025 02:51

Last Modified:

09 Sep 2025 02:51

URI:

http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/53804

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