ANALISIS PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN FAKTOR MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR DI NEGARA FRAGILE FIVE

Sari, Putri Deswita (2025) ANALISIS PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN FAKTOR MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR DI NEGARA FRAGILE FIVE. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.

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Abstract

This study aims to determine the long-term and short-term between The Federal Funds Rate, Central Bank Interest Rate, Inflation, Current account balance, and Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Exchange Rate in Fragile Five countries for the period 2013Q1-2024Q3. This study uses the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) analysis model with Eviews13 software. The results of this study indicate that in the long term the variables Federal Funds Rate, Central Bank Interest Rate, Current account balance, and Foreign Exchange Reserves have a negative and significant effect on the Exchange Rate in Fragile Five countries for the period 2013Q1-2024Q3. While the Inflation variable has a positive and significant effect on the Exchange Rate in Fragile Five countries for the period 2013Q1-2024Q3. This conclusion implies that an increase in Inflation in the long term can depreciate the Exchange Rate. The short-term results show that The Federal Funds Rate and Current account balance variables have a positive and significant effect on the Exchange Rate in Fragile Five countries for the period 2013Q1-2024Q3. This conclusion implies that an increase in The Federal Funds Rate and Current account balance in the short term can depreciate the Exchange Rate. Meanwhile, the Foreign Exchange Reserves variable has a negative and significant effect on the Exchange Rate in Fragile Five countries for the period 2013Q1-2024Q3. This conclusion implies that an increase in Foreign Exchange Reserves can appreciate the Exchange Rate. Meanwhile, the Central Bank Interest Rate and Inflation variables do not have a significant effect on the Exchange Rate in Fragile Five countries for the period 2013Q1-2024Q3.

Item Type:

Thesis (S1)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIP/NIM
Thesis advisor	HERLINA, DESWITA	197012162003122001
Thesis advisor	Ginanjar, Rah Adi Fahmi	198801052024211019

Additional Information:

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui jangka Panjang dan jangka pendek antara Federal Funds Rate, Suku Bunga Bank Sentral, Inflasi, Current account balance, dan Cadangan Devisa terhadap Nilai Tukar di negara Fragile Five periode 2013Q1-2024Q3. Penelitian ini menggunakan model analisis Pooled Mean Group (PMG) dengan software Eviews. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa Dalam jangka panjang variabel Federal Funds Rate, Suku Bunga Bank Sentral, Current account balance, dan Cadangan Devisa memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap Nilai Tukar pada negara Fragile Five periode 2013Q1-2024Q3. Sedangkan variabel Inflasi memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap Nilai Tukar pada negara Fragile Five periode 2013Q1-2024Q3. Kesimpulan ini menyiratkan bahwa peningkatan pada Inflasi pada jangka panjang dapat mendepresiasi Nilai Tukar. Hasil dalam jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa variabel Federal Funds Rate dan Current account balance berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap Nilai Tukar pada negara Fragile Five periode 2013Q1-2024Q3. Kesimpulan ini menyiratkan bahwa kenaikan pada Federal Funds Rate dan Current account balance pada jangka pendek dapat mendepresiasi Nilai Tukar. Adapun variabel Cadangan Devisa berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap Nilai Tukar pada negara Fragile Five periode 2013Q1-2024Q3. Kesimpulan ini menyiratkan bahwa kenaikan pada Cadangan Devisa dapat mengapresiasi Nilai Tukar. Sedangkan variabel Suku Bunga Bank Sentral dan Inflasi tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap Nilai Tukar pada negara Fragile Five periode 2013Q1-2024Q3.

Uncontrolled Keywords:

exchange Rate, federal funds Rate, Fragile Five, macroeconomic factors, PMG nilai tukar, federal funds Rate, Fragile Five, faktor makroekonomi, PMG

Subjects:

H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory

Divisions:

05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan
05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Depositing User:

Putri Putri Deswita

Date Deposited:

04 Sep 2025 02:02

Last Modified:

04 Sep 2025 02:02

URI:

http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/53382

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