APRIANSYAH, SAHRUL (2025) PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE: STUDI KASUS NEGARA INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
Exchange market pressure (EMP) is a crucial indicator that reflects currency pressure in the foreign exchange market. This study analyzes the factors influencing EMP in 22 inflation-targeting countries (ITF) over the period 2001–2023, employing the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation method. The objective of the study is to examine both the short-run and long-run determinants of EMP. The empirical findings reveal that, in the short run, trade openness exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on EMP. In contrast, interest rates, inflation, money supply, and the uncertainty index do not exhibit significant short run impacts. In the long run, the results indicate that interest rates have a negative and significant influence on EMP. Meanwhile, inflation, money supply, the uncertainty index, and trade openness all have positive and significant effects on EMP. These findings suggest that monetary authorities particularly central banks in inflation-targeting regimes should consistently incorporate monetary policy instruments, especially interest rates, as a primary response to financial market volatility.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Tekanan pasar valuta asing merupakan indikator penting yang dapat mencerminkan tekanan nilai tukar mata uang di pasar valuta asing. Penelitian ini menganalisis faktor yang mempengaruhi exchange market pressure di 22 negara ITF periode 2001-2023, dengan menggunakan metode Pooled Mean Group (PMG). Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk menganalisis faktor yang memengaruhi EMP, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, variabel keterbukaan perdagangan memiliki pengaruh positif dan sig terhadap EMP. Sedangkan variabel suku bunga, inflasi, jumlah uang beredar, dan indeks ketidakpastian tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Dalam jangka panjang, hasil menunjukkan bahwa variabel suku bunga berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap EMP. Sedangkan, variabel inflasi, jumlah uang beredar, indeks ketidakpastian, dan keterbukaan perdagangan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap EMP. Oleh karena itu, otoritas moneter seperti bank sentral khususnya di negara yang menerapkan rezim penargetan inflasi perlu secara konsisten mempertimbangkan kebijakan moneter terutama suku bunga sebagai respons awal terhadap gejolak pasar keuangan. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Exchange Market Pressure, Monetary Policy, Uncertainty Index, PMG. Tekanan Pasar Valuta Asing, Kebijakan Moneter, Indeks Ketidakpastian, PMG. | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | |||||||||
| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Sahrul Sahrul Apriansyah | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 28 Aug 2025 07:40 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 28 Aug 2025 07:40 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/53049 |
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