WINARTI, VISTA PUJI (2025) ANALISIS PENGARUH FINANCIAL OPENNESS DAN INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY TERHADAP CREDIT CYCLE. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
The credit cycle reflects fluctuations in financing that can drive economic growth but also pose risks of financial instability. Excessive credit expansion, particularly when driven by surges in capital inflows without effective capital flow management, can trigger crises and increase systemic risk in the financial system. This study aims to identify the effects of Financial Openness and Institutional Quality on the credit cycle, along with control variables including Central Bank Interest Rate, Economic Growth, and Inflation. The analysis employs a non-linear approach using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The findings reveal differing impacts of macroeconomic and institutional variables on the credit cycle under different financial openness regimes. When financial openness is in a high regime, the variables have a positive and significant effect on the credit cycle, while in a low regime, the effects are negative and significant. The control of corruption variable shows a negative and significant influence in the high regime but is statistically insignificant with a positive direction in the low regime. The central bank interest rate is not significant and tends to be negative in the high regime but has a positive and significant impact in the low regime. Economic growth has a negative and significant effect in both regimes. Meanwhile, inflation has a negative and significant impact in the high regime, but is statistically insignificant with a positive direction in the low regime.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Credit cycle mencerminkan fluktuasi pembiayaan yang dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun berisiko menciptakan instabilitas keuangan. Ekspansi kredit yang berlebihan, terutama ketika didorong oleh lonjakan arus modal masuk yang tidak diimbangi dengan pengelolaan arus modal yang efektif, berpotensi memicu krisis dan meningkatkan risiko sistemik dalam sistem keuangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi pengaruh dari Financial Openness dan Institutional Quality dan variabel kontrolnya yaitu Suku Bunga Bank Sentral, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan Inflasi. Metode analisis yang digunakan menggunakan pendekatan non-linear dengan model Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya perbedaan pengaruh antar variabel makroekonomi dan kelembagaan terhadap credit cycle pada rezim financial openness yang berbeda. Pada saat financial openness berada dalam high regime, variabel tersebut berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap credit cycle, sedangkan pada low regime berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Variabel control of corruption menunjukkan pengaruh negatif dan signifikan pada high regime, namun tidak signifikan dengan arah positif pada low regime. Suku bunga bank sentral tidak berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah negatif pada high regime, tetapi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan saat low regime. Pertumbuhan ekonomi memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan baik pada high regime maupun low regime. Sementara itu, inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan pada high regime, namun tidak signifikan dengan arah positif pada low regime. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Credit Cycle, Financial Openness, Institutional Quality, Financial Stability, PSTR Credit Cycle, Financial Openness, Institutional Quality, Stabilitas Keuangan, PSTR | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
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| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Vista Puji Winarti | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 26 Aug 2025 05:10 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 26 Aug 2025 05:10 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/52754 |
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