PITALOKA, DYAH AYU DWI (2025) RESPONS GDP PERIKANAN INDONESIA TERHADAP SUKU BUNGA, INFLASI, NILAI TUKAR DAN KINERJA SEKTOR PERIKANAN: PERSPEKTIF BLUE ECONOMY. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
This study analyzes how Indonesia’s fisheries GDP (FISHGDP) responds to real interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, fisheries production, and exports within the Blue Economy framework. Using VECM and data from 1985–2024, it examines short- and long-term relationships through IRF and Variance Decomposition. Results show fisheries’ GDP responds positively to fish production, and fish exports, but negatively to inflation and exchange rates, with mixed responses to interest rates. In the long term, Meanwhile, the variance decomposition (VD) results reveal that in the long run (period 100), FISHGDP variation is primarily explained by inflation (39.35%), followed by its own past values (34.32%), fisheries production (10.37%), exchange rate (7.99%), real interest rate (7.49%), and exports (0.46%). These findings emphasize the dominant influence of inflation on fisheries sector growth and the importance of production efficiency, exchange rate stability, and macroeconomic control to support Indonesia’s Blue Economy development.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Studi ini menganalisis bagaimana PDB perikanan Indonesia (FISHGDP) merespons suku bunga riil, inflasi, nilai tukar, produksi perikanan, dan ekspor perikanan dalam kerangka Blue Economy. Dengan menggunakan VECM dan data dari tahun 1985–2024, studi ini mengkaji hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang melalui IRF dan Dekomposisi Varians. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan PDB perikanan merespons positif produksi ikan, dan ekspor ikan, tetapi negatif terhadap inflasi dan nilai tukar, dengan respons beragam terhadap suku bunga. Sementara itu, dalam jangka panjang (periode 100), hasil dekomposisi varians (VD) mengungkapkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang (periode 100), variasi PDB perikanan terutama dijelaskan oleh inflasi (39,35%), diikuti oleh nilai masa lalunya sendiri (34,32%), produksi perikanan (10,37%), nilai tukar (7,99%), suku bunga riil (7,49%), dan ekspor perikanan (0,46%). Temuan ini menegaskan dominannya pengaruh inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan sektor perikanan dan pentingnya efisiensi produksi, stabilitas nilai tukar, dan pengendalian makroekonomi untuk mendukung pembangunan Blue Economy di Indonesia. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Fisheries GDP, Interest Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Blue Economy GDP Perikanan, suku bunga, inflasi, nilai tukar, Blue Economy | |||||||||
| Subjects: | S Agriculture > SH Aquaculture. Fisheries. Angling | |||||||||
| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Mrs Dyah Ayu Dwi Pitaloka | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 10 Jul 2025 06:04 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 10 Jul 2025 06:04 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/50543 |
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