Simanjuntak, Togi Marito (2025) MENGUKUR PERSISTENSI INFLASI DAN ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI INDONESIA. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
![[img]](https://eprints.untirta.ac.id/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
Togi Marito Simanjuntak_5553210039_fulltext.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (2MB) |
|
Text
Togi Marito Simanjuntak_5553210039_01.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (1MB) |
|
Text
Togi Marito Simanjuntak_5553210039_02.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (536kB) |
|
Text
Togi Marito Simanjuntak_5553210039_03.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (370kB) |
|
Text
Togi Marito Simanjuntak_5553210039_04.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (569kB) |
|
Text
Togi Marito Simanjuntak_5553210039_05.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (165kB) |
|
Text
Togi Marito Simanjuntak_5553210039_ref.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (210kB) |
|
Text
Togi Marito Simanjuntak_5553210039_lamp.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (701kB) |
Abstract
The stability of the country's economy is highly dependent on inflation control. Actual inflation movements in Indonesia are very volatile and often do not match the inflation target because prices do not easily move down even under very tight monetary policy. So it is necessary to understand how inflation behaves itself, by calculating the persistence of inflation in Indonesia and the factors that influence inflation in Indonesia in the short and long term for the period 2015M01 - 2024M12. This study uses two research methods, namely the autoregressive (AR) method to determine the degree of inflation persistence and the ARDL method to analyze the relationship between variables in the short and long term. This study shows that Indonesia has a high degree of inflation persistence. Economic shocks that cause inflation require a recovery period of 18 months. The Fed's interest rate, exports, and exchange rates affect inflation in both the short and long term. While the amount of money in circulation and imports only affect the long term, and uncertainty affects the short term. BI's interest rate and world oil prices do not have a significant effect on inflation. These findings emphasize the importance of a comprehensive monetary policy strategy.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contributors: |
|
|||||||||
| Additional Information: | Stabilitas perekonomian negara sangat bergantung pada pengendalian inflasi. Pergerakan inflasi aktual di Indonesia sangat fluktuatif dan seringkali tidak sesuai dengan target inflasi karena harga tidak mudah bergerak ke bawah bahkan di bawah kebijakan moneter yang sangat ketat. Maka perlu untuk memahami bagaimana perilaku inflasi itu sendiri, dengan cara menghitung persistensi inflasi di Indonesia dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang periode 2015M01 – 2024M12. Penelitian ini menggunakan dua metode penelitian yaitu metode autoregressive (AR) untuk mengetahui derajat persistensi inflasi dan metode ARDL untuk menganalisis hubungan antar variabel dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia memiliki derajat persistensi inflasi yang tinggi. Guncangan ekonomi yang menyebabkan inflasi memerlukan waktu pemulihan selama 18 bulan. Suku bunga Fed, ekspor, dan nilai tukar berpengaruh terhadap inflasi baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Sementara jumlah uang beredar dan impor hanya berpengaruh dalam jangka panjang, dan ketidakpastian berpengaruh dalam jangka pendek. Suku bunga BI dan harga minyak dunia tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi. Temuan ini menekankan pentingnya strategi kebijakan moneter yang komprehensif. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARDL, Fed Rate, Inflation, Inflation Persistence, Uncertainty ARDL, Suku bunga, Inflasi, Persistensi Inflasi, Ketidakpastian | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform |
|||||||||
| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
|||||||||
| Depositing User: | Togi Marito Simanjuntak | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 25 Jun 2025 08:25 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2025 08:25 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/49880 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |