Sarmila, Sarmila (2025) ANALISIS KETIDAKPASTIAN DUNIA DAN RISIKO GEOPOLITIK TERHADAP HARGA EMAS. S1 thesis, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa.
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Abstract
Gold is a precious metal that has been used as currency, jewelry, and investment for thousands of years. Its stable value and rarity make it a very valuable asset, especially in times of economic uncertainty. Gold is considered a "safe haven" or a safe haven for investors when there is uncertainty in financial markets or political and economic instability. The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of the world uncertainty index, geopolitical risk index, GDP per capita, exchange rate and inflation on gold prices in the short and long term using the pooled mean group (PMG) analysis model. The research results show that in the long term world uncertainty indices, GDP per capita inflation have a significant positive effect, while the geopolitical risk index and exchange rate have a significant negative effect. In the short term, the geopolitical risk index variable, GDP per capita variable, exchange rate and inflation variables have a significant effect on the price of gold, while the world uncertainty index variable has no effect on the price of gold.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Emas adalah logam mulia yang telah digunakan sebagai mata uang, perhiasan, dan investasi selama ribuan tahun. Nilainya yang stabil dan langka membuatnya menjadi aset yang sangat berharga, terutama di masa-masa ketidakpastian ekonomi. Emas dianggap sebagai "safe haven" atau tempat berlindung yang aman bagi investor ketika terjadi ketidakpastian di pasar keuangan atau adanya ketidakstabilan politik dan ekonomi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk menganalisis pengaruh indeks ketidakpastian dunia, indeks risiko geopolitik, PDB per kapita, nilai tukar, dan inflasi terhadap harga emas dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dengan menggunakan model analsis pooled mean group (PMG). Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa dalam jangka panjang indeks ketidakpastian dunia, PDB per kapita inflasi berpengaruh positif signifikan sedangkan indeks risiko geopolitik dan nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Dalam jangka pendek variabel indeks risiko geopolitik, variabel gdp perkapita, variabel nilai tukar dan inflaasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga emas sementara variabel indeks ketidakpastian dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap harga emas. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Gold Price, World Uncertainty Index, Geopolitical Risk Index, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Harga Emas, Indeks Ketidakpastian Dunia, Indeks Risiko Geopolitik, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory J Political Science > JA Political science (General) J Political Science > JZ International relations |
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| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Sarmila Sarmila | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 05 Jun 2025 06:46 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 05 Jun 2025 06:46 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/49278 |
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