Hevada, Tirta (2023) PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK DUNIA, CADANGAN DEVISA, INFLASI DAN KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP IMPOR INDONESIA. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
International trade is increasing, including in Indonesia. However, research related to imports is still minimal compared to export research, so there is an imbalance between the two. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of world oil prices, foreign exchange reserves, inflation, and the rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia's imports from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2022. This research uses quantitative analysis using quarterly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia, and the United States Energy Information Administration. Through the Autoregressive Distributed Leg (ARDL) analysis method using Eviews 9, the estimation results show that world oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate have a significant positive effect on Indonesian imports in the short term. However, foreign exchange reserves and inflation did not affect Indonesia's imports. In the long run, world oil prices, foreign exchange reserves, and inflation have a positive and significant impact on Indonesia's imports, while the rupiah exchange rate does not have a significant negative effect on Indonesian imports.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Perdagangan internasional semakin meningkat, termasuk di Indonesia. Namun, penelitian terkait impor masih minim dibandingkan dengan penelitian ekspor, sehingga terdapat ketimpangan antara keduanya. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk meneliti pengaruh harga minyak dunia, cadangan devisa, inflasi, dan kurs rupiah terhadap impor Indonesia dari kuartal I 2011 hingga kuartal IV 2022. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis kuantitatif dengan menggunakan data kuartal yang diterbitkan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, dan Administrasi Informasi Energi Amerika Serikat. Melalui metode analisis Autoregressive Distributed Leg (ARDL) menggunakan Eviews 9, hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak dunia dan kurs rupiah memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap impor Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Namun, cadangan devisa dan inflasi tidak mempengaruhi impor Indonesia. Dalam jangka panjang, harga minyak dunia, cadangan devisa, dan inflasi memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap impor Indonesia, sementara kurs rupiah tidak berpengaruh negatif secara signifikan terhadap impor Indonesia. | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
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| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Mr Tirta Hevada | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 18 Dec 2023 16:40 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 18 Dec 2023 16:40 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/31519 |
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