NUR INAYAH, MUTIA (2023) PENGARUH VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP DAYA BELI MASYARAKAT SEBAGAI DAMPAK RESESI EKONOMI. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.

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Abstract

This research examines how changes in world oil prices, economic growth, inflation and the exchange rate affect the purchasing power of the Indonesian people. Quantitative descriptive method of this study uses quantitative or numerical data. Research sources include the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Bank Indonesia (BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The calculation model of the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Generalized Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) method and the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) model were used in this study. Analysis of variance shows that α1 + β1 < 1 has a value of 0.50, indicating low oil price volatility. The r value of 0.941543 or 94.15% indicates a strong correlation between the independent variables of world oil price volatility, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and interest rates usually depend on the purchasing power parity variable of nearly 100%.

Item Type:	Thesis (S1)
Contributors:	Contribution Contributors NIP/NIM Thesis advisor ARIFIN, SAMSUL 197811192009121002 Thesis advisor HAIDAT MANGARA, TOGI 199511072022031011
Additional Information:	Penelitian ini mengkaji bagaimana perubahan harga minyak dunia, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan nilai tukar mempengaruhi daya beli masyarakat Indonesia. Metode deskriptif kuantitatif penelitian ini menggunakan data kuantitatif atau numerik. Sumber penelitian meliputi BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Bank Indonesia (BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), International Monetary Fund (IMF) dan Bank Dunia. Model perhitungan metode Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Generalized Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) dan model Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Analisis varians menunjukkan bahwa α1 + β1 < 1 memiliki nilai 0,50, menunjukkan fluktuasi yang rendah pada volatilitas harga minyak. Nilai r sebesar 0,941543 atau 94,15% menunjukkan adanya korelasi yang kuat antar variabel bebas volatilitas harga minyak dunia, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi, suku bunga dan suku bunga biasanya bergantung pada variabel daya beli masyarakat (Purchasing Power Parity) hampir 100%.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Purchasing Power Parity, Volatility, Economic Growth, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, ARCH, ECM Purchase Power Parity, Volatilitas Harga Minyak Dunia, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar, ARCH, ECM
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan
Depositing User:	Mutia Nur Inayah
Date Deposited:	14 Nov 2023 11:38
Last Modified:	14 Nov 2023 11:38
URI:	http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/30920

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