Tri Andini, Sofi (2023) DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN DI ASEAN BERKEMBANG. S1 thesis, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa.
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Abstract
The current account balance is a component of the balance of payments, in which a surplus or deficit is a form of a country's external balance or imbalance. Since the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries, especially developing countries have experienced external imbalances, which is related to a continuous pattern of transactions with the rest of the world. Developing countries in the ASEAN region are often vulnerable to experiencing external imbalances which are reflected in their current account balance. Which every year the country continues to fluctuate which tends to decrease until it experiences a current account deficit. This research was conducted to analyze the impact of monetary policy and macroeconomic indicators on the current account situation of developing countries in the ASEAN region during the fifteen year period from 2007 to 2021. The Current Account Balance as the dependent variable and the independent variable uses Interest Rates in explaining monetary policy and macroeconomic variables including Exchange Rate, Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness. This study analyzes long-term and short-term effects using the VECM panel model. The results show that Interest Rates in the short term has no effect, but in the long term has a significant negative effect. The Exchange Rate in the short term have a significant positive effect, but in the long term have a significant negative effect. Inflation, GDP, and Trade Openness have no effect in the short term but have a significant negative effect in the long term. FDI has a significant positive effect in the short term and the long term.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Neraca transaksi berjalan adalah komponen dari neraca pembayaran, di mana surplus atau defisitnya merupakan bentuk keseimbangan atau ketidakseimbangan eksternal suatu negara. Sejak krisis keuangan tahun 2008 dan pandemi Covid-19, beberapa negara, terutama negara berkembang mengalami ketidakseimbangan eksternal, yang terkait dengan pola transaksi yang terus berlanjut dengan negara�negara lain di dunia. Negara-negara berkembang di kawasan ASEAN seringkali rentan mengalami ketidakseimbangan eksternal yang tercermin dari neraca transaksi berjalannya. Yang mana tiap tahunnya negara tersebut terus berfluktuasi yang cenderung menurun hingga mengalami defisit transaksi berjalan. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan moneter dan indikator ekonomi makro terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan negara berkembang di kawasan ASEAN selama lima belas tahun dari tahun 2007 hingga 2021. Neraca Transaksi Berjalan sebagai variabel dependen dan variabel independen menggunakan Suku Bunga dalam menjelaskan kebijakan moneter dan variabel makroekonomi meliputi NilaiTukar, Inflasi, Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Direct Investment dan Keterbukaan Perdagangan. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dengan menggunakan model panel VECM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Suku Bunga dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh, namun dalam jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Nilai Tukar dalam jangka pendek memiliki pengaruh positif yang signifikan, sedangkan alam jangka panjang memiliki pengaruh negatif yang signifikan. Inflasi, GDP, dan Keterbukaan Perdagangan tidak berpengaruh dalam jangka pendek tetapi berpengaruh negatif signifikan dalam jangka panjang. FDI memiliki pengaruh positif yang signifikan dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Current Account Balance, Interest Rate, Macroecnomic, VECM Panel Neraca Transaksi Berjalan, Suku Bunga, Makroekonomi, Panel VECM | |||||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
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| Divisions: | 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 05-Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > 60201-Program Sarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan |
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| Depositing User: | Sofi Tri Andini | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 21 Sep 2023 14:21 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 21 Sep 2023 14:21 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/29660 |
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