FIRDAUS, DANDY RIZKI (2022) PRAKIRAAN BEBAN LISTRIK MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA DAN JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN. S1 thesis, Fakultas Teknik UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.
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Abstract
Population development is one of the factors for the increasing demand for electrical energy, but the supply of electrical energy is still the same as before. In this research the aim is to estimate the electrical load using the ARIMA and ANN methods in the next 7 days and compare the method which is better at forecasting the electrical load. The accuracy criterion for selecting the best model is based on the Mean Squared Error (MSE) value, the smaller or close to 0 the MSE value, the better the accuracy. The results of the forecast analysis of the ARIMA method and JST on the actual data on electricity loads December 6, 2021 s.d. December 12, 2021 shows that the ANN method provides an MSE accuracy level of 0.002511, which is better than the ARIMA method with an MSE accuracy of 0.016643
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | Perkembangan penduduk menjadi salah satu faktor meningkatnya kebutuhan energi listrik akan tetapi penyediaan energi listrik masih sama seperti sebelumnya. Pada penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprakirakan beban listrik menggunakan menggunakan metode ARIMA dan JST dalam kurun 7 hari ke depan dan membandingkan metode yang lebih baik pada prakiraan beban listriknya. Kreteria keakuratan pemilihan model terbaik berdasarkan nilai Mean Squared Error (MSE) semakin kecil atau mendekati 0 nilai MSE tingkat akuratan semakin baik. Hasil dari analisis prakiraan metode ARIMA, dan JST terhadap data aktual beban listrik 6 Desember 2021 s.d. 12 Desember 2021 menunjukkan bahwa metode JST memberikan tingkat ketepatan akurasi MSE sebesar 0,002511 lebih baik dibandingkan metode ARIMA dengan akurasi MSE sebesar 0,016643 | |||||||||
| Subjects: | T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering |
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| Divisions: | 03-Fakultas Teknik 03-Fakultas Teknik > 20201-Jurusan Teknik Elektro |
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| Depositing User: | Mr Dandy Rizki Firdaus | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 13 Feb 2023 14:23 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 13 Feb 2023 14:23 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/21506 |
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