Adityo, Nadia Putri (2016) PENGARUH KINERJA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN, TRANSAKSI MODAL DAN FINANSIAL, PERBEDAAN SUKU BUNGA RIIL DAN EKSPEKTASI INFLASI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DI INDONESIA. S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA.

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Abstract

The aim of the research of to prove the effect of macroeconomics variables current account, capital and financial account, real interest rate difference, and expected inflation on exchange rate. The data are three monthly time series from 2006-2014. All data are taken from Bank Indonesia. Methedology this research used error correction model (ECM). The result show that simultaneous test (F-test) indicating that current account, capital and financial account, real interest rate differential and expected inflation have significant effect on exchange rate simultaneously in the long term and short term. Partial test (t-test) indicating that capital and financial account, real interest rate difference have significant and positive effect on exchage rate, current account have negative and significant effect on exchange rate and expected inflation have insignificant effect on exchange rate in long term. While in the short term indicating that real interest rate difference have significant and negative effect on exchange rate. Capital and financial account have significant and positive effect on exchange rate. Current account, expected inflation have insignificant effect on exchange rate in the short term. Keywords: Current Account, Capital And Financial Account, Real Interest Rate Difference, Expected Inflation, Exchange Rate, Error Correction Model.

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